Operating Constructs

Correlation does not equal causation. If you're ever looking for a good laugh, look up spurious correlations. Life can be hilarious and statistics can make it even funnier. For example the popularity in the name "Gerad" appears to follow the air pollution levels in Anchorage, Alaska. Do people who name their babies Gerad, celebrate by sitting idle in their cars or startup coal companies? Not likely. But if you're so included, you could make that conspiracy claim.

Hopefully I don't lose anyone in nerd speak, but I want to get into the concept of using an 'operating construct.' Often times people need something to be true before they sign up for following it. Does Santa Clause really bring you better gifts if your behavior is better? No. But it certainly appears to be the case if your behavior-gift quality correlation results in a bountiful Christmas morning. For some, knowing Santa isn't real will alter their behavior, for others they will dig to find the real causal variable (your parents) and for others, they're fine with how the system appears to operate. 

There is no shortage of people on the internet telling you who the real boogyman/men is/are. Claims of nefarious plans & new histories. Do these internet influencers have the secrets to absolute truth? No. But sometimes you can plot basic data points that can illuminate a potential construct to better navigate a world of chaos. The more your construct has accurate predictive abilities, the better. Should it be wrong, the construct itself will need updating.

Are you ever 100% certain your construct is right? No. A healthy minded & relatively statistically educated person knows you're only ever going to approach 100% but never obtain it- Certainly not in the so-called 'real world.' Exact numbers & exact percentages exist only in abstract, never in application. Anyone telling you otherwise is either rhetorically speaking, lying or ignorant. 

This concept & application is rich & very useful and to fully carve it out will require more than one post, but this is a good surface level introduction.

-Codd

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